PredictIt alternatives
PredictIt alternatives in France
Is PredictIt legal in France?
Quick answer
PredictIt doesn't serve France. The platform operates under a US CFTC no-action letter and a New Zealand academic-research permission; France residents are filtered at KYC.
Available alternatives in France
| Platform | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Largest crypto-settled prediction market by volume; USDC on Polygon. | Blocked | Reachable via VPN, Polymarket ToS gray zone. |
| Kalshi CFTC-regulated US exchange; USD settlement, KYC required. | Blocked | CFTC-regulated, US residents only. Not available in France. |
| Manifold Play-money prediction market, no real cash, free to use globally. | Available | Free, play-money only, no regulated investment activity, so no AMF/ANJ conflict. |
| Smarkets UK-licensed betting exchange with political and event markets. | Restricted | UK-licensed betting exchange. France is not on the platform's served jurisdictions, most French users are blocked at signup. |
| Limitless Newer on-chain prediction market on Base; lower fees, smaller volume. | Available | On-chain on Base; accessible from a French IP at time of writing, but legal status is unclear, use with caution. |
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Regulatory context
The AMF is the French financial markets regulator. It maintains a public blacklist of unauthorized investment websites and warns that offering binary-option-style contracts to French residents without authorization is a criminal offense under the Monetary and Financial Code.
Official source: amf-france.orgOther platforms in France
Common questions
01Is PredictIt legal in France?
Is PredictIt legal in France?
PredictIt doesn't serve France. The platform operates under a US CFTC no-action letter and a New Zealand academic-research permission; France residents are filtered at KYC.
02What's the best PredictIt alternative in France?
What's the best PredictIt alternative in France?
Manifold, Play-money prediction market, no real cash, free to use globally. It works natively from France and is the cleanest fallback when PredictIt isn't an option.
03Why is PredictIt so small?
Why is PredictIt so small?
It runs under an academic exception, not a full exchange license. Per-market position caps (~$850 USD) and a narrow US-politics catalog limit volume. The CFTC has repeatedly proposed pulling the no-action letter.
04Is PredictIt being shut down?
Is PredictIt being shut down?
The CFTC has indicated it intends to wind down PredictIt, but ongoing litigation has paused enforcement. The platform continues to operate for now; new traders should weigh that uncertainty.
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