Manifold alternatives
Manifold alternatives in United States
Is Manifold legal in United States?
Quick answer
Manifold is freely accessible from United States. The platform runs in play-money mode, so it doesn't trigger local wagering or securities licensing, anyone can sign up with an email address.
Available alternatives in United States
| Platform | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Largest crypto-settled prediction market by volume; USDC on Polygon. | Restricted | Reachable via VPN, Polymarket ToS gray zone. |
| Kalshi CFTC-regulated US exchange; USD settlement, KYC required. | Available | CFTC-regulated US exchange. Native US dollar settlement and full KYC, the clean choice for US residents. |
| Smarkets UK-licensed betting exchange with political and event markets. | Blocked | UK-licensed; not served in the US. |
| Limitless Newer on-chain prediction market on Base; lower fees, smaller volume. | Available | — |
| PredictIt Academic political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington. | Restricted | Academic markets, capped positions. |
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Regulatory context
The CFTC regulates US derivatives markets and event contracts. Its 2024 settlement with Polymarket sets the framework under which the platform may offer certain markets to US persons, with category-level restrictions evolving over time.
Official source: cftc.govOther platforms in United States
Common questions
01Is Manifold legal in United States?
Is Manifold legal in United States?
Manifold is freely accessible from United States. The platform runs in play-money mode, so it doesn't trigger local wagering or securities licensing, anyone can sign up with an email address.
02What's the best Manifold alternative in United States?
What's the best Manifold alternative in United States?
Kalshi, CFTC-regulated US exchange; USD settlement, KYC required. It works natively from United States and is the cleanest fallback when Manifold isn't an option.
03Is Manifold real money?
Is Manifold real money?
No. Manifold uses an internal play-money currency called mana. You earn or lose mana on your predictions; you can't cash it out for fiat. There's a charity-redemption pathway in some regions.
04Why use Manifold if there's no real money?
Why use Manifold if there's no real money?
Three reasons: forecasting practice without financial risk, broader market coverage (anyone can create a market on any topic), and accessibility, Manifold works from jurisdictions where real-money prediction markets are blocked.
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Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Limitless, Smarkets, Qotify's vision AI reads any orderbook image and returns implied probability, fair value, edge, and a suggested action.